September 8, 2026
News

Brent Nears $100 as Middle East Supply Risks Return

Brent crude has moved back towards $100 per barrel as renewed conflict in the Middle East raises concerns about oil production and shipping through key regional routes.

The international benchmark traded above $98 during Monday’s session before settling at $97.31, its highest closing level since 24 July. West Texas Intermediate rose to approximately $92.65 after briefly moving above $93.

The latest price increase followed renewed exchanges between the US and Iran, threats against regional energy infrastructure and reported attacks on Saudi oil facilities. These developments have increased fears that an already restricted oil market could face further disruption.

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Why the Strait of Hormuz matters

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy routes. During the first half of 2025, approximately 20.9 million barrels of oil passed through it each day, representing around 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.

Shipping through the strait has since declined sharply because of the conflict. Total crude shipments from Middle Eastern producers are currently estimated at approximately 11 million barrels per day, compared with 18 million before the war began.

The situation became more uncertain after Iran threatened to establish a restricted maritime zone in the Gulf. Meanwhile, attacks attributed to Iran-aligned Houthi forces reportedly disrupted operations at Saudi energy facilities.

Why is Brent still below $100?

Despite these risks, several factors have prevented oil prices from moving decisively above $100.

First, some oil continues to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Although daily flows have fallen sharply, recent moving averages have remained around four to five million barrels per day.

Second, Gulf producers are using alternative pipelines, ports and ship-to-ship transfers to move part of their exports outside the affected route.

Additional supply from non-OPEC producers is also helping offset the shortage. Production from the US, Canada and Guyana is expected to increase by a combined 1.4 million barrels per day during 2026.

Demand has also weakened in some major markets. China’s seaborne crude imports reportedly declined from more than 11 million barrels per day in February to around seven million during July and August. Lower demand reduces some of the upward pressure created by supply disruptions.

What could push oil above $100?

A sustained move above $100 may depend on whether the conflict causes further physical supply losses.

Additional attacks on oil facilities, tighter restrictions around Hormuz or damage to alternative export routes could increase the risk premium in crude prices. A recovery in Chinese demand or declining global inventories could add further support.

In contrast, diplomatic progress, safer shipping conditions or continued growth in non-OPEC production could reduce supply concerns and place downward pressure on prices.

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What CFD traders may monitor

Oil-market volatility can affect more than Brent and WTI CFDs.

Higher crude prices may support energy companies while increasing costs for airlines, transportation businesses and manufacturers. They can also contribute to inflation, potentially influencing interest-rate expectations, equity indices, currencies and gold.

For oil CFDs, the $100 level may become an important area of market attention. However, prices could remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, shipping data and changes in physical supply.

The central question is no longer whether the Middle East conflict is disrupting oil flows. It is whether alternative supply routes and weaker demand can continue preventing those disruptions from pushing Brent firmly above $100.